Ok, now that this is up (though I know it is here somewhere else atleast two or three different places), I am going to take the time to tweek it a bit. My opinions are in Orange (red made my eyes bleed). I beleive this list got jumbled up at one point or another and went from a list of the first 100 things to run out to a hybrid of that and things you need to have, which I do not beleive are the same.

1. Generators
(Good ones cost dearly. Gas storage, risky. Noisy...target of thieves; maintenance, etc.)
Agree, Generators will fly off the shelves, but the fuel for them will be right behind them.

2. Water Filters/Purifiers
Slightly Disagree, Water filter and purifiers will not be the second thing to go. Water itself will be. Bottled Water first. Then the smarter refugees will get the idea that they need a filter/purification system.

3. Portable Toilets (Increasing in price every two months.)
This one doesn't make sense to me at all. an outhouse takes minimal material to build, so even if they are flying off the shelves, so what.

4. Seasoned Firewood
(About $250 per cord; wood takes 6 - 12 mos. to become dried, for home uses.)
In an emergency, it doesn't need to be seasoned, so this isn't an issue. Couple that with the fact that 90% or more of the homes do not have a wood burner or fireplace, it is sorta a non-issue.

5. Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps
(First choice: Buy CLEAR oil. If scarce, stockpile ANY!)
This would go quick, but Kerosene and Jet A Fuel work fine in a pinch

6. Coleman Fuel
(URGENT $2.69-$3.99/gal. Impossible to stockpile too much.)
Coleman Fuel is essentially unleaded gasoline without any additives. One additive that would cause issues with indoor use is MTBE. It is however being phased out. MTBE is not a good thing to breath on a regular basis, If you live in Canada, an even nastier additive is in their fuels MMT (banned in the US since the 70's) which is a neurotoxin. solution, go with the coleman dual fuel line of products. They can use not only white gas but kerosene as well. (editor's note: Coleman Dual Fuel products are not really "Dual Fuel". They can use either Coleman Fuel or Unleaded gas, which is essentially the same. They do however have a true Dual Fuel campstove that runs on Coleman Fuel/Unleaded Gas & Kerosene http://www.coleman.com/coleman/colemancom/detail.asp?product_id=550B725&categoryid=2020&brand= )

7. Guns, Ammunition, Pepper Spray, Knives, Clubs, Bats and Slingshots
Way tooooo general. Guns and ammo, definately, pepper spray?? good capable knives yes, bats and slingshots?

8. Hand-Can openers and hand egg beaters, whisks (Life savers!)
Hand-can openers definatley, most on the market are junk however, so get a good one at a restruant suppy store. Egg Beaters and whisks? you could use a fork if you had to, the real issue is geting into the can of food IMHO

9. Honey/Syrups/white, brown sugars
A good thing to learn would be how to make sorgum molassess, buy some seeds now. also maple sugaring and bee keeping would give you a nice cottage industry post-shtf

10. Rice - Beans - Wheat
(White rice is now $12.95 - 50# bag. Sam's Club, stock depleted often.)

11. Vegetable oil (for cooking)
(Without it food burns/must be boiled, etc.)
Save your grease!!learn to render lard, make butter and save that bacon grease (you could can it now)

12. Charcoal and Lighter fluid (Will become scarce suddenly.)
not really an issue, I think good matches would disappear first, and they are more important. if you have a zippo, unleaded gas is fine, stock up on flints and wicks.

13. Water containers
(Urgent Item to obtain. Any size. Small: HARD CLEAR PLASTIC ONLY)
In a TSHTF situation, almost anything to catch water is good to go, just be prepared to filter/purify before use. A 5 gallon bucket with lid is a great start.

14. Mini Heater head (Propane) (Without this item, propane won't heat a room.)
I totally don't get the point here. Propane will be gone faster than gasoline in most parts, so I would waste my time with one anyway.

15. Grain Grinder (Non-electric)
I dont beleive I have ever seen a "real" non-decorative grain grinder in any store in my area, so they are already off the shelves here, mail order would probably not be too reliable post-shtf, so get one now

16. Propane Cylinders
They will run out sooner than this, but don't see the need

17. Michael Hyatt's Y2K Survival Guide
(BEST single y2k handbook for sound advice/tips.)
I like Live Off The Land in The City And country by Ragnor Benson, but is this going to fly off the shelf?

18. Mantles: Aladdin, Coleman, etc.
(Without this item, longer-term lighting is difficult.)
and of course globes and also wicks for the non-mantle lanterns

19. Baby Supplies: Diapers/formula/ointments/aspirin, etc
Real diapers and safety pins will be back to the norm, so triple up on the ointments

20. Washboards, Mop Bucket w/wringer (for Laundry)

21. Cook stoves (Propane, Coleman and Kerosene)
These probably go sooner than this, if your shopping, go with a dual fuel

22. Vitamins (Critical, due to Y2K-forced daily canned food diets.)
unfortunatly poor shelf life is even worse in summer temps, ie no AC or refrigeration

23. Propane Cylinder Handle-Holder
(Urgent: Small canister use is dangerous without this item.)
These folks reeeeaaaly like their propaneimage non-issue

24. Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products
Well, this is a tough one, I don't see the hair/skin care stuff beinag an issue, but the other stuff is. I have never researched historical feminine hygiene, so I leave that one up to the ladies

25. Thermal underwear (Tops and bottoms)

26. Bow saws, axes and hatchets and Wedges (also, honing oil)
This would be lower. While it should be in the top ten for must haves, it would be an afterthought to the common refugee, especially those who have not seen Defianceimage

27. Aluminum foil (Reg. and Heavy Duty)
(Great Cooking and Barter item)

28. Gasoline containers (Plastic or Metal)
This would be much higher on the list, probably #2 or #3

29. Garbage bags (Impossible to have too many.)
Big garbage bags are reall handy to those in the know, but I don't think it would be high on the typical sheeple list. Ziplock bags are more important, and may go faster

30. Toilet Paper, Kleenex, paper towels
Probably higher

31. Milk - Powdered and Condensed (Shake liquid every 3 to 4 months.)
Way higher

32. Garden seeds (Non-hybrid) (A MUST)

33. Clothespins/line/hangers (A MUST)

34. Coleman's Pump Repair Kit: 1(800) 835-3278

35. Tuna Fish (in oil)
Way Higher
36. Fire extinguishers (or.. large box of Baking soda in every room...)

37. First aid kits

38. Batteries (all sizes...buy furthest-out for Expiration Dates)
Way Higher

39. Garlic, spices and vinegar, baking supplies

40. BIG DOGS (and plenty of dog food)
Dogs will be everywhere until folks realize that they are edible, dog food will be an issue if you choose to keep one for security/companionship.

41. Flour, yeast and salt
Way higher

42. Matches ("Strike Anywhere" preferred. Boxed, wooden matches will go first.)
Way higher

43, Writing paper/pads/pencils/solar calculators
This kinda goes with 47

44. Insulated ice chests (good for keeping items from freezing in Wintertime)

45. Work boots, belts, Levis and durable shirts

46. Flashlights/Light Sticks and torches, "No.76 Dietz" Lanterns

47. Journals, Diaries and Scrapbooks
(Jot down ideas, feelings, experiences: Historic times!)

48. Garbage cans Plastic
(great for storage, water, transporting - if with wheels)
Disagree, Storage is debatable, if it is edible food storage vermin will chew through, Water storage is possible, but plastic garbage cans are not that durable. 55gal drums with removable heads would be far more valuable

49. Men's Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, etc

50. Cast iron cookware (sturdy, efficient)
Much lower, I don't think folks would concern themselves with new cooking utensils at first, though cast iron is better, it is also much much heavier and a non-thinker may pass on it because of that.

51. Fishing supplies/tools

52. Mosquito coils/repellent sprays/creams
only if the crash was in skeeter season

53. Duct tape

54. Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes

55. Candles
Much higher

56. Laundry detergent (Liquid)

57. Backpacks and Duffle bags
This would go much quicker, anyone with a brain will be buying this along with everything else so they can carry it and alternatively, looters will seek these out to carry loot

58. Garden tools and supplies

59. Scissors, fabrics and sewing supplies
Lower, Another after thought item

60. Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.
Way higher

61. Bleach (plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% sodium hypochlorite)

62. Canning supplies (Jars/lids/wax)
probably higher, but may fall into the afterthought realm

63. Knives and Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel

64. Bicycles...Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc.

65. Sleeping bags and blankets/pillows/mats

66. Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)
Nobody is gong to think... oh my goodness, TS just HTF I need a CO2 detector, way lower

67. Board Games Cards, Dice

68. D-Con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer

69. Mousetraps, Ant traps and cockroach magnets
68 & 69 essentially the same thing, though mouse traps have many uses including food gathering and booby traps, but I digress. Pests will be a huge problem, but very much an after thought. lower

70. Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks...)
I don't see the point, I think durable camping type bowls/plates/utensils would go much faster than paper/plastic products

71. Baby Wipes, oils, waterless and Anti-bacterial soap
(saves a lot of water)

72. Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.

73. Shaving supplies
(razors and creams, talc, after shave)

74. Hand pumps and siphons
(for water and for fuels)
Fuel theives would get these off the shelves fairly quick

75. Soy sauce, vinegar, bouillons/gravy/soup base

76. Reading glasses

77. Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)

78. "
a little self promo I'm thinking,

79. Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens
totally seasonal

Boy Scout Handbook - 12th Edition
(also, Leader's Catalog)
This assumes that people are going to think in a crisis, most of the thinkers would already have it or something simular
81. Roll-on Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)
I'll get this right after the CO2 detector

82. Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky

83. Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts

84. Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)

85. Lumber (all types)

86. Wagons and carts (for transport to and from open Flea markets)

87. Cots and Inflatable Mattresses (for extra guests)

88. Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.

89. Lantern Hangers

90. Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws, nuts and bolts

91. Teas

92. Coffee

93. Cigarettes

94. Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc.)
91-93 will all be hard to find by the end of day two, way higher

95. Paraffin wax
Most people don't know what to do with it, lower

96. Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.

97. Chewing gum/candies
Way higher

98. Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)
Are we talking a water spray bottle here??

99. Hats and cotton neckerchiefs

100. Goats/chickenS
Actually, in my AO there is no goats and chickens, stray dogs and cats would go much faster once folks got hungry

IMHO, you have a few different mindsets working on the availability of items. A common mistake is to think that things would fly off the shelf in the order we think they would. We for the most part have the preparedness mindset and know it is diffcult to eat a can of peaches without a can opener, others may not realize that their electric can opener no longer works until they get all the way home and try to open them peaches!

So I would say it would be safe to say we would have Hunters and Gatherers with two subsets each; Prepardness mindset (thinkers), and Panic mindset (non-thinkers)

The first thing the gatherers would go for and quickly deem unobtainable would be all foods and water as we know it, perishables first, quickly followed by canned and dry goods. We (the thinkers) would be buying up the canned and dry goods, but most "non-thinkers" may be buying up the perishables quickly due to familiarity.

The Hunters would hit up tools first Weapons of all sorts would be next to fly off the shelves driven by non-thinkers (we already have them, we just need more ammo just in case) The thinkers would be more likely to look for that tool that they need, maybe a set of files or other maintenance items to keep their existing gear together and up and running. The non-thinking hunters will also be the most dangerous, being unprepared, armed and desperate.

Right after food, water, and tools, shelter (including fire) would be the next biggie.

Then you have all of the afteerthought items and depending on the situation, they may not be available at all, because looters torching the store after they get what they want. So think about those items that you may need months down the road when you need to fix your britches.

".........I find alot of the other boards are full of alot of guys that have alot of "anger issues" that I flat can do without. The "tin foil" subjects are distractions that diverts one's attention from subjects that actually matter - like training and preparing........" Tire Iron 2/08

Edited 3 times by Garand69 Jan 1 10 10:00 AM.